ANOTHER FORECASTING FAILURE – AT 10:45 A.M. ET:   It seems to be this way every time.  A huge snowstorm is forecast, and a much smaller one occurs.  We expected a mammoth blizzard here in the New York area and, yes, we're getting a lot of snow.  But the blizzard warning has been cancelled.  From CBS and AP:

NEW YORK (CBSNewYork/AP) — The National Weather Service has cancelled its blizzard warning for New York City as snow and sleet continues to fall across the Tri-State area.

A winter weather advisory is now in effect for the city, Hudson and northern Nassau counties until 8 p.m. Tuesday.

The new forecast calls for between 4 to 8 inches in New York City. The storm was expected to dump a foot or more of snow on the New York City area with wind gusts of up to 55 mph.

“Mother Nature is an unpredictable lady sometimes,” Gov. Andrew Cuomo said a news conference Tuesday. “She was unpredictable today.”

COMMENT:  Yeah, right, Gov.  Unpredictable.  But you and others are telling us that global warming can be predicted 50 years from now, when the Weather Service is consistently wrong on predicting storms that are only a day away.

There have been many ideas floated over the years as to why these major-storm predictions are so often exaggerated.  One is that the Weather Service is covering itself.  It's better to err on the side of exaggeration, goes the reasoning, then be blamed if we get a storm larger than predicted.

Another idea is that exaggerated predictions are driven by TV stations hungry for the higher ratings, and advertising revenues, that go with spectacular reports.  I doubt that.  They like the ratings, but they usually report predictions from official agencies.

Whatever the reason, there is a real record here, and both consumers and governments have spent millions preparing for YUGE storms that didn't materialize.

My own belief is that the actual culprit is the Energizer Bunny.  I've always been suspicious of rabbits.  Very cagey, very sneaky.  And look at all the batteries that get sold when the weather people announce impending doom. 

That bunny must be living very well in San Diego.

March 14, 2017